📌 Is COST a Buy right now?
According to Ultra Stock Analysis Pro, Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) is currently rated WAIT (Signal Strength: 0/7). The long-term fundamentals are strong (P/E: 52.4, Revenue Growth: +21.5%), while short-term technicals show a bullish trend (RSI: 53). Consider waiting for support confirmation near $1025.14 before adding exposure.
For the latest stock analysis and interactive charts:
📊 Open COST Analysis ↗
Why this rating?
The Ultra Stock Analysis algorithm has assigned a WAIT rating to COST based on a confluence of 3 distinct factors:
📊 Confidence Interval:
Based on 7+ years of historical data, signals with this specific technical fingerprint have resulted in a positive return 45% of the time over a medium-term (months) hold period, with an average return of +5.4% per trade.
To assist with risk management, here are the three most probable paths for COST over the next trading week:
🟢 The Bull Case (Probability: 20%)
If COST reclaims the $1025.14 resistance level (Bollinger Upper), algorithmic targets shift to $1072.22. This move would likely be driven by continued sector rotation into Consumer Defensive.
🔴 The Bear Case (Probability: 50%)
Failure to hold the $975.15 support zone (Bollinger Lower) triggers a defensive stop-loss signal. In this scenario, the algorithm projects a slide toward the $956.79 liquidity zone (-5.2% from current price).
🟡 The Base Case (Sideways)
Given the current ADX of 10 (weak trend - consolidation likely), the most likely immediate outcome is consolidation between $975.15 and $1025.14 until a volume catalyst occurs.
⚠️ These scenarios are algorithm-generated projections based on technical analysis, not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
| TECHNICAL METRICS | VALUE | FUNDAMENTAL METRICS | VALUE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Price | $1008.79 | Market Cap | $447.6B |
| Past Win Rate (Backtest) | 45.0% | Forward P/E | 44.9x |
| Past Total Return | +43.9% | Analyst Target | $1072.22 |
| RSI / Trend Strength | 53 / 10 | Upside to Target | +6.3% |
| MACD Signal | Bullish | Revenue Growth | +21.5% |
| Profit Factor | 3.51 | Institutional Own. | 75.0% |
| Open Position | No open position | Analyst Ratings | 23 Buy / 12 Hold / 2 Sell |
WAIT FOR ENTRY - Monitor for confluence score >= 5 with proper risk management using stop loss set at 2-3x the 14-day ATR volatility.
Both strategies analyzed independently. Conservative uses fixed 2.0x ATR stops. Hybrid adapts stops based on position profit (tighter as profit grows).
Fixed 2.0x ATR Stop Loss
Waiting for entry signal...
Entry Stop: $972.08 ({atr_multiplier}x ATR)
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
45%
Past Total Return
+43.9%
Max Drawdown
-15.9%
Avg Trade
+5.4%
Trades
20
Adaptive ATR Stop Loss (1.0-2.75x)
Waiting for entry signal...
Entry Stop: $981.26 ({atr_multiplier}x ATR)
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
45%
Past Total Return
+43.9%
Max Drawdown
-15.9%
Avg Trade
+5.4%
Trades
20
Current Price
$1008.79
Buy Stop Loss
$972.08
Distance: 4%
Conservative 2.0x
Position Stop Loss
$972.08
Distance: 4%
Hybrid 2.00x
ATR 14 Day
$18.36
Volatility
ADX Strength
10.0
Weak/No Trend
New position - Standard stop loss levels
ADX: 20-25 = Emerging trend | 25-50 = Strong trend | 50+ = Very strong
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| EMA 20 | $1003.82 | Bullish |
| EMA 50 | $994.31 | Bullish |
| RSI (14) | 53.2 | Neutral range |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 10.0 | Weak/No trend (<20) |
Recent upgrades, downgrades, and price target changes (last 90 days)
| Firm | Action | From → To | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTIG | REITERATED | Buy → Buy | Mar 05, 2026 |
| Average Target: | $1072.22 | High Target: | $1315.00 |
| Current Price: | $1008.79 | Low Target: | $650.00 |
| Upside to Average: | +6.3% | Number of Analysts: | 32 |
Based on backtest performance (Win Rate: 45.0%, Avg Return: +5.4%) and analyst consensus (Target: $1072.22, +6.3% upside), a MARKET WEIGHT exposure may be considered. Risk/Reward ratio of 0.42:1 suggests unfavorable risk-adjusted returns. No current position - opportunity to establish entry at favorable technical levels.
Costco Wholesale Corporation operates in the Consumer Defensive sector (Discount Stores). Current valuation of 44.9x forward P/E reflects premium multiples relative to growth prospects. Operating margin of 3.7% shows compressed profitability.
Fundamental Outlook: Strong Growth - Positive operating leverage with revenue and earnings acceleration
Overall Score: 4.6/10 - Bullish
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| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $447.6B |
| P/E Ratio (Forward) | 44.9 |
| EPS (Forward) | $22.49 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.58% |
| 52-Week Range | $844.06 - $1067.08 |
| Beta | 0.91 |
| Avg Volume | 1.8M |
Comprehensive Technical Data for Quantitative Analysis
| Indicator | Value | Indicator | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Close Price | $1008.79 | Volume | 1.8M |
| EMA 20 | $1003.82 | EMA 50 | $994.31 |
| EMA 200 | $961.25 | Current Price | $1008.79 |
| RSI (14) | 53.16 | MACD | 3.962 |
| MACD Signal | 3.713 | MACD Histogram | 0.249 |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 9.98 | Volatility (ATR 14) | $18.36 |
| Bollinger Upper | $1025.14 | Bollinger Lower | $975.15 |
| Stochastic %K | 49.53 | Stochastic %D | 55.40 |
| VWAP | $1009.97 | Bollinger Middle | $1000.14 |
| Confluence Score | 0/7 | Trade Signal | NONE |
Comprehensive Fundamental Data for Financial Analysis
| Valuation Metrics | Performance | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $447.6B | Revenue | $286.3B |
| Forward P/E | 44.9 | Revenue Growth | +21.5% |
| Trailing P/E | 52.4 | Gross Margin | 12.9% |
| Price/Sales | 1.56 | Operating Margin | 3.7% |
| Price/Book | 27.06 | Profit Margin | 3.0% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.09 | ROE | 29.7% |
| Enterprise Value | $445.6B | Free Cash Flow | $6.7B |
Comprehensive Trading Performance and Position Details
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Entry Price | Exit Price | Return % | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-13 | 2022-12-12 | $447.09 | $466.75 | +4.40% | Win |
| 2022-12-20 | 2023-12-27 | $438.17 | $657.63 | +50.09% | Win |
| 2024-03-07 | 2024-03-12 | $775.93 | $727.82 | -6.20% | Loss |
| 2024-07-05 | 2024-07-09 | $876.18 | $877.35 | +0.13% | Win |
| 2024-08-05 | 2024-09-13 | $794.37 | $907.48 | +14.24% | Win |
| 2024-11-08 | 2025-01-15 | $936.26 | $916.12 | -2.15% | Loss |
| 2025-01-21 | 2025-03-14 | $940.16 | $897.69 | -4.52% | Loss |
| 2025-05-30 | 2025-06-17 | $1034.36 | $972.25 | -6.00% | Loss |
| 2026-01-15 | 2026-02-17 | $954.06 | $1010.58 | +5.92% | Win |
| 2026-04-08 | 2026-04-15 | $1028.78 | $983.32 | -4.42% | Loss |
Summary: 20 total trades | Strategy: No Active Position
Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Technical analysis based on historical data through 2026-05-08. Fundamental data auto-fetched from Yahoo Finance. Please conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.
Report Generated: May 09, 2026 at 12:55 PM
Ultra Stock Analysis Pro - Comprehensive Technical & Fundamental Analysis