Reason: Great business, weak setup. Expected Return is the upside to the analyst price target; full rationale is detailed below.
📌 Is LLY a Buy right now?
According to Ultra Stock Analysis Pro, Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) is currently rated STRONG BUY (Signal Strength: 7/7). The long-term fundamentals are strong (P/E: 42.9, Revenue Growth: +55.5%), while short-term technicals show a bullish trend (RSI: 72). Traders should watch for a breakout above $1185.15 before entering new positions.
For the latest stock analysis and interactive charts:
📊 Open LLY Analysis ↗
LLY carries a STRONG BUY rating because valuation and fundamentals remain attractive (Investment Quality 81/100), the trend is strong (ADX 30), relative strength is positive versus the S&P 500 and a confirmed bullish setup is in place (Signal Strength 7/7). A close below $1058.41 would weaken the setup; sustained strength keeps the STRONG BUY intact.
Two independent reads: how good the business is (fundamentals) vs. how good buying it right now is (technicals & timing). A great company is not always a great entry.
LLY: Investment Quality 81/100 vs. Entry Quality 52/100 — weigh business strength against the current setup.
The stock's return minus each benchmark's return. Positive = outperforming = leadership; negative = lagging. Relative strength is one of the most durable signals in quantitative research.
| Benchmark | 1-Mo | 3-Mo | 6-Mo |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.2% | +21.6% | +6.6% |
| Healthcare (XLV) | +3.3% | +24.4% | +8.8% |
| Pharma (XPH) | -1.6% | +11.3% | -3.7% |
LLY 3-month return: +34.9% · Leadership: BROAD LEADER — outperforming the market, its sector, and peers
What is driving the view — every factor's signed contribution to one net score. Green adds to the bull case; red detracts.
| Factor | Contribution | Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Earnings Growth +170% YoY | +18 | |
| Profitability Margin 35%, ROE 107% | +16 | |
| Trend EMA bullish, ADX 30 | +12 | |
| Relative Strength +19.1% vs benchmarks (3M) | +12 | |
| Revenue Growth +56% YoY | +10 | |
| Sentiment Bullish | +6 | |
| Valuation Fwd P/E 27.2, PEG 1.6 | +0 | |
| Volatility ATR 3.2% of price | -2 | |
| Momentum RSI 72, MACD bearish | -11 |
Net Factor Score: +61 — Strongly bullish factor profile. This weighs the broad bull/bear case; the entry signal (Signal Strength) governs timing — a strong factor score can still read WAIT until a setup triggers.
A gradient-boosted model's estimated probability that price closes higher over each horizon (directional estimate, not a guarantee).
● Top 25% in sector ● Middle 50% ● Bottom 25% — each value colored by its rank among 11 Drug Manufacturers - General peers; "med" is the peer median.
Why this rating?
The Ultra Stock Analysis algorithm has assigned a STRONG BUY rating to LLY based on a confluence of 3 distinct factors:
📊 Confidence Interval:
Based on 7+ years of historical data, signals with this specific technical fingerprint have resulted in a positive return 53% of the time across 17 historical trades over a medium-term (months) hold period, with an average return of +15.6% per trade.
📊 How the Signal Strength score works (and why it can read low in an uptrend)
Signal Strength is a tactical entry-timing score, not a trend or fundamentals grade. It only adds points from setups that flag a fresh reason to enter — breakouts, momentum divergences, and oversold/volume/volatility extremes. Trend direction and fundamentals are scored in their own sections above. A setup must reach 3+ points to register as a signal and 5+ for a strong BUY. Individual boxes below can be checked — a stacked EMA trend alone is worth 2 points — without crossing the 3-point bar; when that happens the registered Signal Strength stays at 7/7, meaning no new entry trigger today — not a bearish call.
| Signal | Pts | What it flags | Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valid Breakout | 3 | Close breaks above the 20-day high on >1.5× volume | ✓ |
| EMA Trend Alignment | 2 | EMA20 > EMA50 > EMA200 (stacked uptrend) | ✓ |
| RSI Bullish Divergence | 2 | Price firms while RSI was falling — a reversal setup | ✗ |
| MACD Bullish Divergence | 2 | Price firms while MACD was falling — a reversal setup | ✗ |
| Strong Trend (ADX > 25) | 1 | ADX > 25 confirming the stacked EMAs | ✓ |
| High Volume (>1.5×) | 1 | Volume surge confirming the move | ✓ |
| RSI Oversold | 1 | RSI < 30 — stretched to the downside (bounce setup) | ✗ |
| Below Lower Bollinger | 1 | Close below the lower band (mean-reversion setup) | ✗ |
| Volume Accumulation | 1 | Up-volume divergence — quiet accumulation | ✗ |
Points met on the latest bar: 7 → registered Signal Strength 7/7. A setup must reach 3+ points to register as a signal (5+ for a strong BUY); below that it reads 0.
This is why LLY can show a bullish EMA trend and solid fundamentals while Signal Strength reads 7/7: those are already-in-trend and value measures, whereas this score fires only on a new tactical setup (an oversold bounce, a divergence, or a high-volume breakout) — none of which is present on the latest bar.
To assist with risk management, here are the three most probable paths for LLY over the next trading week:
🟢 The Bull Case (Probability: 70%)
If LLY reclaims the $1185.15 resistance level (Bollinger Upper), algorithmic targets shift to $1222.62. This move would likely be driven by continued sector rotation into Healthcare.
🔴 The Bear Case (Probability: 14%)
Failure to hold the $1058.41 support zone (Bollinger Lower) triggers a defensive stop-loss signal. In this scenario, the algorithm projects a slide toward the $1020.22 liquidity zone (-15.6% from current price).
🟡 The Base Case (Sideways)
Given the current ADX of 30 (strong trend), momentum suggests a directional move is imminent between $1058.41 and $1185.15 until a volume catalyst occurs.
⚠️ These scenarios are algorithm-generated projections based on technical analysis, not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
| TECHNICAL METRICS | VALUE | FUNDAMENTAL METRICS | VALUE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Price | $1208.12 | Market Cap | $1077.3B |
| Past Win Rate (Backtest) | 52.9% (17 trades) | Forward P/E | 27.2x |
| Past Total Return | +137.5% | Analyst Target | $1222.62 |
| RSI / Trend Strength | 72 / 30 | Upside to Target | +1.2% |
| MACD Signal | Bullish | Revenue Growth | +55.5% |
| Profit Factor | 4.83 | Institutional Own. | 85.4% |
| Position Entry | 2026-06-26 @ $1208.12 | Analyst Ratings | 24 Buy / 6 Hold / 1 Sell |
| Open Position Past P&L | +0.0% |
MAINTAIN POSITION - Current position showing 0.0% unrealized gain. Use intelligent stop loss strategy below.
Both strategies analyzed independently. Conservative uses fixed 2.0x ATR stops. Adaptive adjusts stops based on position profit (tighter as profit grows).
Fixed 2.0x ATR Stop Loss
Entry: $1208.12 on 2026-06-26
Confluence: 7.0
Stop Loss: $1131.74
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
53%
Past Total Return
+137.5%
Max Drawdown
-11.4%
Avg Trade
+15.6%
Trades
17
Adaptive ATR Stop Loss (1.0-2.75x)
Entry: $1208.12 on 2026-06-26
Confluence: 7.0
Stop Loss: $1150.84
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
52%
Past Total Return
+120.9%
Max Drawdown
-10.6%
Avg Trade
+8.2%
Trades
25
Current Price
$1208.12
Buy Stop Loss
$1131.74
Distance: 6%
Conservative 2.0x
Position Stop Loss
$1112.65
Distance: 8%
Hybrid 2.50x
ATR 14 Day
$38.19
Volatility
ADX Strength
30.0
Strong trend
Position down -0% - Wider stops for recovery
ADX: 20-25 = Emerging trend | 25-50 = Strong trend | 50+ = Very strong
Recent upgrades, downgrades, and price target changes (last 90 days)
| Firm | Action | From → To | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guggenheim | REITERATED | Buy → Buy | May 05, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | REITERATED | Outperform → Outperform | May 04, 2026 |
| Average Target: | $1222.62 | High Target: | $1500.00 |
| Current Price: | $1208.12 | Low Target: | $850.00 |
| Upside to Average: | +1.2% | Number of Analysts: | 29 |
Based on backtest performance (Win Rate: 52.9% over 17 trades, Avg Return: +15.6%) and analyst consensus (Target: $1222.62, +1.2% upside), a MARKET WEIGHT exposure may be considered. Risk/Reward ratio of 0.19:1 (reward to analyst target vs. distance to the stop) suggests unfavorable risk-adjusted returns. Current open position shows +0.0% unrealized gain.
Eli Lilly and Company operates in the Healthcare sector (Drug Manufacturers - General). Current valuation of 27.2x forward P/E reflects premium multiples relative to growth prospects. Operating margin of 49.4% shows strong profitability.
Fundamental Outlook: Strong Growth - Positive operating leverage with revenue and earnings acceleration
Overall Score: 6.1/10 - Bullish
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Comprehensive Technical Data for Quantitative Analysis
| Indicator | Value | Indicator | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Close Price | $1208.12 | Volume | 7.7M |
| Beta | 0.52 | Avg Volume | 3.3M |
| EMA 20 | $1113.22 | EMA 50 | $1060.68 |
| EMA 200 | $972.63 | Current Price | $1208.12 |
| RSI (14) | 72.41 | MACD | 29.144 |
| MACD Signal | 30.220 | MACD Histogram | -1.076 |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 29.96 | Volatility (ATR 14) | $38.19 |
| Bollinger Upper | $1185.15 | Bollinger Lower | $1058.41 |
| Stochastic %K | 59.33 | Stochastic %D | 46.61 |
| VWAP | $1183.96 | Bollinger Middle | $1121.78 |
| Confluence Score | 7/7 | Trade Signal | NONE |
Comprehensive Fundamental Data for Financial Analysis
| Valuation Metrics | Performance | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $1077.3B | Revenue | $72.2B |
| Forward P/E | 27.2 | Revenue Growth | +55.5% |
| Trailing P/E | 42.9 | Gross Margin | 82.8% |
| Price/Sales | 14.91 | Operating Margin | 49.4% |
| Price/Book | 34.60 | Profit Margin | 35.0% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.56 | ROE | 107.5% |
| Enterprise Value | $1115.4B | Free Cash Flow | $9.2B |
| EPS (Forward) | $44.48 | Dividend Yield | 0.57% |
| 52-Week Range | $623.78 - $1215.76 | ||
Comprehensive Trading Performance and Position Details
| Entry Date | Entry Price | Past P&L | Entry Stop Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | $1208.12 | +0.00% | $1131.74 |
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Entry Price | Exit Price | Return % | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-09-09 | 2021-09-20 | $229.68 | $221.68 | -3.48% | Loss |
| 2021-10-27 | 2022-01-20 | $239.41 | $233.43 | -2.50% | Loss |
| 2022-03-07 | 2022-04-07 | $252.25 | $297.36 | +17.88% | Win |
| 2022-06-24 | 2022-08-09 | $314.99 | $293.13 | -6.94% | Loss |
| 2022-09-29 | 2024-03-04 | $320.28 | $780.04 | +143.55% | Win |
| 2024-05-21 | 2024-08-02 | $792.11 | $793.38 | +0.16% | Win |
| 2024-08-13 | 2024-11-05 | $895.54 | $796.07 | -11.11% | Loss |
| 2024-11-18 | 2025-04-01 | $719.38 | $797.94 | +10.92% | Win |
| 2025-04-29 | 2025-05-07 | $877.18 | $769.69 | -12.25% | Loss |
| 2025-11-03 | 2026-06-08 | $892.19 | $1149.15 | +28.80% | Win |
Summary: 17 total trades | Strategy: Conservative Stop Loss (Fixed ATR-based)
Disclaimer: This report is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Ultra Stock Analysis Pro is not a registered investment advisor; information is impersonal and not tailored to individual circumstances. AI-generated content may contain errors — verify before acting. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Technical analysis based on historical data through 2026-06-26. Fundamental data auto-fetched from Yahoo Finance. Please conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.
Report Generated: June 28, 2026 at 11:56 AM
Ultra Stock Analysis Pro - Comprehensive Technical & Fundamental Analysis