📌 Is NFLX a Buy right now?
According to Ultra Stock Analysis Pro, Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) is currently rated WAIT (Signal Strength: 0/7). The long-term fundamentals are strong (P/E: 28.2, Revenue Growth: +16.2%), while short-term technicals show a bearish trend (RSI: 34). Consider waiting for support confirmation near $107.56 before adding exposure.
For the latest stock analysis and interactive charts:
📊 Open NFLX Analysis ↗
Why this rating?
The Ultra Stock Analysis algorithm has assigned a WAIT rating to NFLX based on a confluence of 3 distinct factors:
📊 Confidence Interval:
Based on 7+ years of historical data, signals with this specific technical fingerprint have resulted in a positive return 41% of the time over a medium-term (months) hold period, with an average return of +8.5% per trade.
To assist with risk management, here are the three most probable paths for NFLX over the next trading week:
🟢 The Bull Case (Probability: 20%)
If NFLX reclaims the $107.56 resistance level (Bollinger Upper), algorithmic targets shift to $114.56. This move would likely be driven by continued sector rotation into Communication Services.
🔴 The Bear Case (Probability: 50%)
Failure to hold the $81.69 support zone (Bollinger Lower) triggers a defensive stop-loss signal. In this scenario, the algorithm projects a slide toward the $79.12 liquidity zone (-9.6% from current price).
🟡 The Base Case (Sideways)
Given the current ADX of 21 (weak trend - consolidation likely), the most likely immediate outcome is consolidation between $81.69 and $107.56 until a volume catalyst occurs.
⚠️ These scenarios are algorithm-generated projections based on technical analysis, not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
| TECHNICAL METRICS | VALUE | FUNDAMENTAL METRICS | VALUE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Price | $87.49 | Market Cap | $368.4B |
| Past Win Rate (Backtest) | 40.9% | Forward P/E | 22.8x |
| Past Total Return | +43.7% | Analyst Target | $114.56 |
| RSI / Trend Strength | 34 / 21 | Upside to Target | +30.9% |
| MACD Signal | Bearish | Revenue Growth | +16.2% |
| Profit Factor | 3.86 | Institutional Own. | 85.8% |
| Open Position | No open position | Analyst Ratings | 35 Buy / 10 Hold / 1 Sell |
WAIT FOR ENTRY - Monitor for confluence score >= 5 with proper risk management using stop loss set at 2-3x the 14-day ATR volatility.
Both strategies analyzed independently. Conservative uses fixed 2.0x ATR stops. Hybrid adapts stops based on position profit (tighter as profit grows).
Fixed 2.0x ATR Stop Loss
Waiting for entry signal...
Entry Stop: $82.35 ({atr_multiplier}x ATR)
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
41%
Past Total Return
+43.7%
Max Drawdown
-18.9%
Avg Trade
+8.5%
Trades
22
Adaptive ATR Stop Loss (1.0-2.75x)
Waiting for entry signal...
Entry Stop: $83.63 ({atr_multiplier}x ATR)
Backtest Results (Since 2018):
Past Win Rate
41%
Past Total Return
+43.7%
Max Drawdown
-18.9%
Avg Trade
+8.5%
Trades
22
Current Price
$87.49
Buy Stop Loss
$82.35
Distance: 6%
Conservative 2.0x
Position Stop Loss
$82.35
Distance: 6%
Hybrid 2.00x
ATR 14 Day
$2.57
Volatility
ADX Strength
21.5
Emerging trend
New position - Standard stop loss levels
ADX: 20-25 = Emerging trend | 25-50 = Strong trend | 50+ = Very strong
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| EMA 20 | $92.51 | Bearish |
| EMA 50 | $93.46 | Bearish |
| RSI (14) | 33.9 | Weak - potential support |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 21.5 | Emerging trend (20-25) |
Recent upgrades, downgrades, and price target changes (last 90 days)
| Firm | Action | From → To | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Citizens | REITERATED | Market Perform → Market Perform | Apr 17, 2026 |
| Keybanc | REITERATED | Overweight → Overweight | Apr 17, 2026 |
| Wedbush | REITERATED | Outperform → Outperform | Apr 17, 2026 |
| Citizens | REITERATED | Market Perform → Market Perform | Apr 15, 2026 |
| Guggenheim | REITERATED | Buy → Buy | Apr 14, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | UPGRADE | Neutral → Buy | Apr 06, 2026 |
| Citizens | INITIATED | Market Perform | Mar 30, 2026 |
| CFRA | UPGRADE | Hold → Buy | Mar 06, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | UPGRADE | Neutral → Overweight | Mar 02, 2026 |
| Wedbush | REITERATED | Outperform → Outperform | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Average Target: | $114.56 | High Target: | $151.40 |
| Current Price: | $87.49 | Low Target: | $80.00 |
| Upside to Average: | +30.9% | Number of Analysts: | 44 |
Based on backtest performance (Win Rate: 40.9%, Avg Return: +8.5%) and analyst consensus (Target: $114.56, +30.9% upside), an OVERWEIGHT exposure may be considered. Risk/Reward ratio of 2.06:1 suggests favorable risk-adjusted returns. No current position - opportunity to establish entry at favorable technical levels.
Netflix, Inc. operates in the Communication Services sector (Entertainment). Current valuation of 22.8x forward P/E reflects reasonable multiples relative to growth prospects. Operating margin of 32.3% shows strong profitability.
Fundamental Outlook: Strong Growth - Positive operating leverage with revenue and earnings acceleration
Overall Score: 1.3/10 - Slightly Bullish
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| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $368.4B |
| P/E Ratio (Forward) | 22.8 |
| EPS (Forward) | $3.84 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52-Week Range | $75.01 - $134.12 |
| Beta | 1.55 |
| Avg Volume | 45.1M |
Comprehensive Technical Data for Quantitative Analysis
| Indicator | Value | Indicator | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Close Price | $87.49 | Volume | 36.1M |
| EMA 20 | $92.51 | EMA 50 | $93.46 |
| EMA 200 | $98.16 | Current Price | $87.49 |
| RSI (14) | 33.89 | MACD | -2.153 |
| MACD Signal | -1.229 | MACD Histogram | -0.924 |
| Trend Strength (ADX) | 21.49 | Volatility (ATR 14) | $2.57 |
| Bollinger Upper | $107.56 | Bollinger Lower | $81.69 |
| Stochastic %K | 12.20 | Stochastic %D | 9.42 |
| VWAP | $87.58 | Bollinger Middle | $94.63 |
| Confluence Score | 0/7 | Trade Signal | NONE |
Comprehensive Fundamental Data for Financial Analysis
| Valuation Metrics | Performance | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $368.4B | Revenue | $46.9B |
| Forward P/E | 22.8 | Revenue Growth | +16.2% |
| Trailing P/E | 28.2 | Gross Margin | 49.0% |
| Price/Sales | 7.86 | Operating Margin | 32.3% |
| Price/Book | 13.88 | Profit Margin | 28.5% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.28 | ROE | 48.5% |
| Enterprise Value | $373.0B | Free Cash Flow | $26.0B |
Comprehensive Trading Performance and Position Details
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Entry Price | Exit Price | Return % | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-08-18 | 2023-09-19 | $40.45 | $39.62 | -2.06% | Loss |
| 2023-10-18 | 2024-02-16 | $34.62 | $58.40 | +68.68% | Win |
| 2024-04-22 | 2024-04-30 | $55.46 | $55.06 | -0.71% | Loss |
| 2024-05-09 | 2024-12-11 | $61.21 | $93.66 | +53.01% | Win |
| 2025-01-22 | 2025-04-04 | $95.40 | $85.59 | -10.29% | Loss |
| 2025-04-22 | 2025-08-05 | $104.03 | $114.79 | +10.34% | Win |
| 2025-08-12 | 2025-10-27 | $122.53 | $109.46 | -10.67% | Loss |
| 2025-11-24 | 2025-12-11 | $106.97 | $94.09 | -12.04% | Loss |
| 2026-01-21 | 2026-02-17 | $85.36 | $77.00 | -9.79% | Loss |
| 2026-03-09 | 2026-05-05 | $98.32 | $87.89 | -10.61% | Loss |
Summary: 22 total trades | Strategy: No Active Position
Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Technical analysis based on historical data through 2026-05-08. Fundamental data auto-fetched from Yahoo Finance. Please conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.
Report Generated: May 09, 2026 at 12:53 PM
Ultra Stock Analysis Pro - Comprehensive Technical & Fundamental Analysis